The three major materials of traditional textiles are cotton, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber. Among them, cotton is the main material, but in recent years, its traditional big brother position has been vaguely unstable. In the past two years, the current price of cotton has continued to hover at a low level, and the operation of cotton enterprises is very difficult; textile enterprises have been transformed and upgraded, and cost-effective materials such as polyester and viscose are more favored by the market, and there is a certain relationship between the semi-industrial polyester industry and the traditional cotton spinning industry. There are also certain advantages and disadvantages.

Advantage:

The growth rate of polyester staple fiber output value far exceeds that of cotton

According to statistics, the total output value of cotton in my country in 2018 was 6.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.04%; the estimated output value in 2019 was 6.091 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.31%. It can be seen that the growth rate of cotton output value has gradually slowed down in the past two years, and due to factors such as inherent cultivation area, unit yield, cultivation skills, climate, maintenance and other factors, there is little room for a substantial increase or decrease in cotton output value, and the supply saturation of the cotton market is now relatively high. high. Polyester staple fiber is slightly different from cotton.

It is understood that the output value of polyester staple fiber in July 2019 was 1,125,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 44.62%. In August 2019, the output value of polyester staple fiber was 899,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.58%. The average year-on-year growth rate from January to August 2019 was 25.3%. It can be seen that since the end of 2018, the output value of polyester staple fiber has continued to increase at a high speed, and at the time when the cotton market was weak, the substitution of polyester staple fiber for cotton was gradually becoming stronger. In 2018, the annual output value of polyester staple fiber was 8.8929 million tons, which has far exceeded the output value of cotton. In addition, the polyester industry continues to increase rapidly, and the advantages of polyester output value will become increasingly prominent in the later period.

Industrial plasticity, strong adjustment power, and considerable profits

Since the opening of the micro-turbulent situation last year, the cotton market has been hit hard, and the cotton market has plummeted. At present, when cotton is harvested and sold, the price of seed cotton is low, the ginning factory is not very willing to sell, the sales situation is general, the surplus level is limited, and some cotton companies even lose money.

However, the price of polyester staple fiber can still be controlled by the influence of microscopic news. In the past two years, the profit level of polyester staple fiber has been maintained at an average of 500-800 yuan / ton. Although the price of PTA raw materials has skyrocketed since June 2018, the profit of polyester staple fiber has dropped significantly, and even a small loss of 100-300 yuan / ton, but when After the price of raw materials stabilized, polyester staple fiber recovered to a relatively high and reasonable surplus level, and its anti-risk ability was relatively better than that of cotton.

Historical data shows that the normal price difference between polyester staple fiber and cotton is about 3,000 yuan/ton. When the price difference deviates from the normal range, textile enterprises will freely allocate the amount of cotton and polyester within the scope of the order. In the past two years, the price difference between polyester staple fiber and cotton has risen to 5000-8000 yuan / ton. Under the excessively high price difference, textile enterprises gradually increase the amount of polyester staple fiber, and the market share of polyester staple fiber gradually increases, which can also be easily understood as the strong substitution of polyester staple fiber.

Futures are about to be listed, and the process of industrial standardization is accelerated

On June 5, 2019, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued the "Announcement on Collecting Polyester Staple Fiber Futures Delivery Brands" to prepare for the listing of polyester staple fiber futures. Although cotton futures have been on the market for a long time, the accumulated funds, open interest and activity are generally high. The listing of polyester staple fiber futures is not an advantage, but it can be regarded as a booster for the rapid development of polyester staple fiber, providing enterprises with hedging tools. It is conducive to the organization of the future production of the enterprise, the stability of the production and operation of the enterprise and the expansion of the planning, and the rapid development of the polyester industry.